Blackjack Hand Odds Calculator
Pick your two cards and the dealer's up-card, and this blackjack odds calculator compares the modeled win probability and average profit of every play. It uses the same deterministic probability engine as our trainer, with the deck count and soft-17 rule you select. New to the totals? Blackjack card values explains why an ace is 1 or 11 and why the 10, J, Q and K are one card here.
How to read the results
- Avg profit per $1 is the long-run expected value of each play at your chosen rules — the number basic strategy maximizes. Doubles and splits already account for the extra money you put up.
- Win % is how often the play wins the hand. It is not the deciding number: doubling often matches hit's win rate with twice the bet, and that's exactly why the book prefers it.
- The engine assumes the standard US game: dealer peeks for blackjack, double on any two cards, double after split allowed, split aces get one card. Splits are valued as two one-hand plays (no resplit), the standard approximation.
The hands people look up most
Every number below is this calculator’s own output for a 6-deck, dealer-hits-soft-17 game, in cents per $1 of your original bet. Run any of them above to see the full breakdown, or change the deck count and soft-17 rule to match your table.
| Your hand | Dealer shows | Correct play | Value per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 10 | Hit | −53.5¢ |
| 15 | 10 | Hit | −50.4¢ |
| 12 | 2 | Hit | −25.3¢ |
| 13 | 2 | Stand | −28.9¢ |
| 11 | A | Double | +11.9¢ |
| 9 | 3 | Double | +13.0¢ |
| A,7 | 9 | Hit | −9.9¢ |
| 8,8 | 10 | Split | −48.5¢ |
| 9,9 | 7 | Stand | +39.9¢ |
| A,8 | 6 | Double | +46.3¢ |
| 10,10 | 6 | Stand | +67.7¢ |
Notice how many of these are losing hands — the correct play often just loses the least. 16 vs 10 is the classic: hitting is right, and it still costs about 53½ cents on the dollar. That gap between best play and good outcome is the whole game. Pairs show it most: splitting 8,8 against a 10 still loses 48.5¢, but standing on the 16 loses 53.8¢. The full grid is on the expected value chart, and all 3,300 rows are free to download as open data.
What are the odds of winning your hand?
This is a blackjack probability calculator as much as a strategy tool. For any starting hand it reports the modeled chance of winning next to the expected value, because those answer different questions: win % is how often you take the hand, EV is what the hand is worth. Basic strategy maximizes EV — which is exactly why the highest win % is sometimes the wrong play, since doubling wins a similar share of hands with twice the money on the table. For the game-wide figures (you win about 42.4% of hands), see blackjack odds of winning.
Want to know what your table costs rather than what a hand is worth? That’s a different question — the house edge calculator prices the rules (decks, soft 17, 3:2 vs 6:5, surrender) instead of a single hand.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the answer change with the number of decks?
Fewer decks make card removal matter more — your own cards shift the remaining composition harder. That's why single-deck charts differ in a few cells and why the calculator lets you set 1–8 decks. How many decks matter puts a number on it: a single-deck game is worth about 0.5% less house edge than an 8-deck shoe, all else equal.
What's the difference between H17 and S17 here?
H17 means the dealer hits soft 17, which makes the dealer slightly stronger and changes a few close plays (11 vs A, A-7 vs 2, A-8 vs 6). The soft 17 guide covers all three.
Is this a blackjack probability calculator?
Yes. For any starting hand and dealer up-card it gives the modeled probability of winning alongside the expected value of each play, for 1–8 decks and either soft-17 rule. Win % is how often you take the hand; EV is what it’s worth — and basic strategy maximizes EV, so the highest win % is sometimes not the correct play.
How do you calculate blackjack odds for a hand?
Start from the cards that remain, build the distribution of dealer final totals for the shown up-card under the table’s soft-17 rule, then evaluate every option against it — stand, hit with optimal continuation, double for one card, split. The highest expected value is the correct play. This calculator runs that computation instead of looking the answer up in a chart; the methodology documents the approximations.
Are these numbers exact or simulated?
They are deterministic, not Monte Carlo simulation. They are also a model: future draws use the current shoe proportions without card-by-card depletion, and split valuation does not build a full correlated resplit tree. See the methodology before using close differences as definitive.