Why do you stand on 12 against a 4, 5, or 6?

Because those are the dealer's worst up-cards: a dealer 4, 5, or 6 busts about 40-44% of the time. Standing on 12 wins whenever the dealer busts, and that happens often enough to beat hitting — even though a 12 only busts about 31% of the time if you draw. Against a 2 or 3 the dealer busts less, so hitting your 12 edges ahead.

Guide · The core decision

When to Hit or Stand in Blackjack

Q: When should you hit or stand in blackjack?

Stand on a hard 17 or higher always. With a stiff total of 12 to 16, stand when the dealer shows 2 through 6 and hit when the dealer shows 7 through ace — the one exception is hard 12, where you hit against a 2 or 3 and stand only against 4, 5, or 6. The logic is simple: the dealer's 2-6 bust often, so you let them take the risk; their 7-ace usually make a strong hand, so you must improve.

Q: Do you hit a 16 against a 10?

Yes, but barely. In a 6-deck game, standing on 16 vs 10 loses about 54.2¢ per dollar and hitting loses about 53.5¢ — hitting is better by only 0.7¢, the closest decision in basic strategy. The exception is a 16 made of two 8s, which you split instead.

Q: Should you ever hit a hard 17?

No. Standing on a hard 17 always beats hitting, even against a dealer 9, 10, or ace. Against a 10 for example, standing loses about 41.9¢ per dollar while hitting loses about 58¢ — hitting throws away roughly 16¢ on the dollar. Only a soft 17 (ace-six) should ever be hit.

By Spencer S. · Updated June 20, 2026

The rule, in one line

Always stand on hard 17+. On a stiff total (12–16): stand against a dealer 2–6, hit against 7 through ace. The lone exception is hard 12 — hit it against a 2 or 3, stand only against 4, 5, or 6.

Hit or stand is the decision you face more than any other at the table, and it's where casual players leak the most money. The good news: it's almost entirely decided by the dealer's up-card, not your gut. Below is the exact play for every stiff total — and, because we computed it ourselves, the real expected value of both choices, so you can see exactly how close each call is.

The hit-or-stand matrix (hard totals, 6-deck H17)

Green S = stand, red H = hit. This is the entire decision for un-paired hard hands from 12 up:

Your hard total	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
12	H	H	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H
13	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H
14	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H
15	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H
16	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H
17	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S

Hard 11 and below can't bust on a hit, so you always hit (or double) them — they're off this table. A hard 17+ always stands. Pairs and soft hands follow their own rules: see when to split and the note on soft hands below.

Why the dealer's card decides it

Standing on a stiff hand only wins when the dealer busts. So the whole question is: how likely is that?

Dealer 2–6 — you stand. These are the "bust cards." A dealer 6 busts 43.9% of the time, a 5 41.8%, a 4 39.7%. Your 16 is ugly, but if you hit it you bust first and lose for certain; standing lets the dealer take that 40%+ chance of busting for you.
Dealer 7–ace — you hit. These cards make a pat hand three times in four (a dealer 10 reaches 17+ about 77% of the time). Standing on your 14 just waits to lose. You have to draw and hope to improve, even though it stings to risk busting.

The knife-edge calls — where it's almost a coin flip

Most hit-or-stand decisions are lopsided. A handful are nearly tied, and these are the ones people argue about and get wrong. Here is the exact expected value of each choice (cents per $1 bet) for every decision closer than 8¢ — straight from our engine:

Hand	Correct play	EV if you stand	EV if you hit	Cost of the wrong call
12 vs 4	Stand	−20.6¢	−21.2¢	−0.6¢
16 vs 10	Hit	−54.2¢	−53.5¢	−0.7¢
12 vs 3	Hit	−24.9¢	−23.3¢	−1.6¢
13 vs 2	Stand	−28.9¢	−30.8¢	−1.9¢
12 vs 5	Stand	−16.1¢	−19.0¢	−2.9¢
12 vs 2	Hit	−28.9¢	−25.3¢	−3.6¢
15 vs 10	Hit	−54.1¢	−50.4¢	−3.7¢
16 vs 9	Hit	−54.3¢	−50.5¢	−3.8¢
13 vs 3	Stand	−24.9¢	−29.1¢	−4.2¢
12 vs 6	Stand	−12.1¢	−17.2¢	−5.1¢
16 vs A	Hit	−59.9¢	−54.0¢	−5.9¢
16 vs 8	Hit	−51.4¢	−45.4¢	−6.0¢
17 vs A	Stand	−51.5¢	−57.8¢	−6.3¢
16 vs 7	Hit	−47.7¢	−40.9¢	−6.8¢
13 vs 4	Stand	−20.3¢	−27.3¢	−7.0¢
15 vs 9	Hit	−54.3¢	−47.2¢	−7.1¢
14 vs 2	Stand	−28.9¢	−36.4¢	−7.5¢
14 vs 10	Hit	−54.1¢	−46.3¢	−7.8¢

16 vs 10 is the closest call in the game — hitting wins by just 0.7¢ on the dollar. It's a real coin flip, which is why it has its own deep-dive. Hit it (unless it's 8,8 — then split).
12 vs 4 is the quietest mistake. Standing is correct by only 0.6¢, so close that many players hit out of habit and barely lose by it — but over a year of play those tenths of a cent add up.
12 vs 2 and 12 vs 3 flip to hitting. A dealer 2 or 3 doesn't bust often enough (about 35–38%) to make standing on 12 pay, so you take a card. This is the single most-missed entry on the whole chart.

Hard 17 and up: always stand

People sometimes ask if a "weak" 17 should be hit against a dealer 9, 10, or ace. The math is emphatic: no. Standing on hard 17 vs a 10 loses about 41.9¢; hitting loses about 58¢ — you'd throw away roughly 16¢ on the dollar. A made hard total of 17 or more is always a stand. The only 17 you ever hit is a soft 17 (ace-6), because drawing can't bust it.

A note on soft hands

Everything above is for hard totals. With an ace counted as 11 (a "soft" hand) you can't bust on a single hit, so you're far more aggressive — often doubling rather than just hitting. The quick version: hit (or double) soft 17 and below; soft 18 stands against 2, 7, and 8 but hits or doubles against everything else; soft 19+ stands. The full soft-hand EV is in the expected-value chart.

Frequently asked questions

When should you hit or stand in blackjack?

Stand on hard 17+. On a stiff 12–16, stand against a dealer 2–6 and hit against 7 through ace — the exception is hard 12, which hits against a 2 or 3 and stands only against 4, 5, or 6. The dealer's up-card drives the decision: their 2–6 bust often, so you let them; their 7–ace usually make a hand, so you must improve.

Do you hit a 16 against a 10?

Yes, but barely — standing loses about 54.2¢ per dollar and hitting about 53.5¢, so hitting wins by just 0.7¢, the closest call in basic strategy. The exception is 8,8, which you split instead.

Should you ever hit a hard 17?

No. Standing on a hard 17 beats hitting against every up-card, including a 9, 10, or ace. Only a soft 17 (ace-six) is ever hit.

Why stand on 12 against a 4, 5, or 6 but hit against a 2 or 3?

A dealer 4, 5, or 6 busts about 40–44% of the time, often enough that standing on 12 pays. A 2 or 3 busts less (about 35–38%), so hitting your 12 edges ahead by a fraction of a cent.