Do You Hit 16 Against a 10?
Hit — but know that it's the closest call in all of blackjack. And if your table offers late surrender, surrender beats both options.
Hard 16 against a dealer ten is the most argued-about hand in the game, and for good reason: whatever you do, you're going to lose more often than you win. The question is only how much.
The exact numbers
| Your play | Average result per $1 bet | Chance to win the hand |
|---|---|---|
| Stand | −54.0¢ | ~23% |
| Hit | −54.0¢ (better by a hair) | ~20% |
| Surrender (if offered) | −50.0¢ | — |
Notice something strange: standing actually wins more often (the dealer busts 23% of the time, and that's your only way to win standing). But when hitting works — when you catch that 2, 3, 4, or 5 — you often beat dealer hands that standing would have lost to. Counting pushes and weighting the outcomes, hitting loses a fraction of a cent less per dollar. That fraction, repeated over thousands of hands, is why the book says hit.
Why this hand feels so bad
A dealer showing a ten reaches 17 or better 77% of the time, and makes exactly 20 about 37% of the time — see the full dealer bust odds. Your 16 beats nothing the dealer can legally stand on. So standing is a pure prayer for a bust, while hitting busts you immediately 8 times in 13. There is no good option — only a least-bad one.
The exceptions worth knowing
- Multi-card 16: stand. If your 16 is made of 3+ cards (like 7-5-4), you've already consumed the small cards you'd need to improve. The razor-thin math flips to standing.
- Surrender when you can. Losing a guaranteed 50¢ beats losing an expected 54¢. Most players hate giving up half their bet; the math doesn't care about feelings.
- 8-8 is not a 16. A pair of eights against a ten splits — it loses about 49¢ per $1 versus 54¢ for hitting. Still ugly, but meaningfully less ugly.
- Counters stand at true count 0+. 16 vs 10 is the most famous counting deviation: with even a neutral-or-positive count, the extra tens in the shoe make standing correct.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the chart say hit if standing wins more often?
Because "win more often" isn't the goal — losing less money is. Hitting converts some losses into pushes and wins against dealer 17–19 hands, which outweighs the extra busts by a tiny margin. Expected value, not win frequency, decides every cell on the strategy chart.
Does it matter which cards make my 16?
Yes — this is one of the few spots where it does. 10-6 and 9-7 are borderline hits; a 16 made of three or more cards (which used up the deck's small cards) becomes a stand.
What about 15 vs 10?
Clearer: hit. Standing on 15 loses 54.0¢ per $1, hitting loses 50.4¢ — a real gap, not a coin flip. (Surrender 15 vs 10 too, if offered.)